Forex Analysis – Trade of the Day: USD/JPY 13th August 2014

US JOLTS Job Openings

Yesterday afternoon, at GMT 2:00 p.m., the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) Job Openings figure that measures the number of job openings during the last month. Although the JOLTS figure excludes the farming industry, it is still considered a leading indicator of the overall health of the US economy. This is because new job openings will eventually end up employing someone and this may help gauge the consumer spending in the country.

In July 2014, the JOLTS Job Opening figure was at 4.58 million and this month the forecast was set at 4.74 million. However, the actual figure came out way short of the expectation, at 4.67 million

Japanese Preliminary GDP

The Japanese Cabinet Office released the national quarter over quarter Preliminary GDP figure at GMT 11:50 p.m., which measures the changes in the value of all goods and service produced by the Japanese economy during the last quarter. This figure is usually published after adjusting inflation and it is considered one of the key leading economic indicators.

Since the preliminary GDP figure is published first, it usually has the highest market impact.

Last quarter, the Japanese Preliminary GDP was set at 1.6% growth. However, over the course of the second quarter (Q2’2014), the outlook for the Japanese economy was not so optimistic. Analysts were expecting the Preliminary GDP to come out in negative -1.7%, and the actual figure matched the forecast.

Trade Recommendation for the USD/JPY

USD/JPY graph on 13th august

 

On August 8, the USD/JPY formed a bullish pin bar on the daily time frame. Since then, the market has been trading upwards at a relatively slow pace.

Worse than expected US JOLTS Job Openings figure has already concerned the market participants regarding the bullish momentum in the USD/JPY. However, the declining Preliminary GDP figure from Japan has not helped the market to decide about the Yen either.

Currently, the USD/JPY is trading near the strong resistance area around the 102.30 level. If the bullish momentum created by the daily pin bar can help the buyers push the price north, and the daily bar closes above the 102.30 level, it may attract further buyers in the market. In that situation, it would suggest a CALL in the USD/JPY.

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About our Forex Analyst:  Asif Imtiaz

Asif Imtiaz

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